The UK's seventh Prime Minister in the last ten years arrives at 10 Downing Street this week with a pledge to seek "a closer relationship" with Europe. 

As Andy Burnham becomes the latest figure in an ever-revolving door of politicans responsible for steering the UK, many in the security industry expect an evolutionary stance, rather than revolutionary.

The incoming-PM has presented himself in the past as a pragmatic Labour politician and his statements would suggest he views national security as a broad concept that encompasses policing, defence, cyber and societal resilience and critical infrastructure.

Emphasis on resilience

A recurring theme for Burnham is 'national resilience', rather viewing security through a narrow lense. This could result increased government spending in areas such as:

- Critical national infrastructure
- Business continuity
- Emergency preparedness
- Supply chain security
- Climate resilience

This could lead to benefits to companies offering risk management, physical security and crisis management services.

Cyber security investment

Burnham has spoken previously about cyber attacks on businesses and public services as examples of national security threats, which suggests cyber security would remain a major government priority.

In areas such as public sector cyber resilience, critical infrastructure protection and skills development, we could see continued market growth as the government seeks to combat growing threats.

Increased protection of public spaces

Recent events have prompted Burnham to call for a review of security arrangements in place for MPs and public figures, which could prompt increased investment in protective security, CCTV, behaviour detection, security screening and event security.

A large emphasis is likely to be placed on public buildings and crowded places, with the progression of Martyn's Law scheduled to come into full force in spring 2027.

Defence spending on a geopolitical scale

The UK faces a more uncertain geopolitcal environment than at any point in previous years and Burnham has spoken about strengthening Britain's 'hard power'. 

Whilst the scale of any increase in defence spending remains unclear at present, sectors such as perimeter protection, secure facilities, counter-drone technology and CNI security would be set to benefit from any greater investment.

Internationally, Burnham has plenty to contend wit. An administration in the United States that remains committed to relentlessly pursuing American national interests around the globe and remaining verbally hostile to anyone perceived as standing in their way. There is also the small matter of continuing to repel Russian aggression against Ukraine and winning popular support for the trade decisions required if the UK is to meet NATO spending targets for 2035.

Evolution, not revolution

The incoming Burnham government is expected to reinforce industry trends, rather than trying to fundamentally rip up the playbook and reshape the market. We may see slight changes in language and rhetoric: shifts from 'crime' and 'law and order' to 'national resilience' and 'community safety'.

The underlying demand for security technology should remain strong and could increase if government spending is directed towards cyber capability and resilience services.

The incoming PM will have a full inbox of tasks waiting for him on his first day in office.