Australia

Could a Global Food Crisis Become Australia's Next Security Challenge?

Jul 2 2026

2 Minute Read

When we think about national security, food is rarely the first thing that comes to mind. Cyber threats, critical infrastructure and geopolitical tensions often dominate the conversation. But a growing number of former security leaders are warning that the next major security challenge may begin much earlier in the supply chain: on farms, in fertiliser plants and along global shipping routes.

A new report from My Security Marketplace, supported by former Australian defence, intelligence and national security leaders, warns that a combination of escalating conflict in the Gulf, rising fertiliser prices and the potential arrival of a "super" El Niño could create significant pressure on global food systems over the coming year.

While Australia remains one of the world's largest agricultural exporters, experts say no country is completely insulated from global supply chain disruption.

The report highlights how modern food production has become heavily dependent on international fertiliser markets, many of which are closely linked to the Gulf region. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also warned that prolonged disruption to trade through the Strait of Hormuz could push fertiliser prices 15–20 per cent higher, increasing costs for farmers and reducing crop yields if shortages persist.

At the same time, climate forecasters are monitoring conditions that could develop into one of the strongest El Niño events in decades. The World Bank has warned there is a high probability of El Niño developing through mid-2026 and continuing into 2027, bringing an increased risk of drought and reduced agricultural production across parts of Australia, Asia and Africa.

Individually, neither challenge is new.

Together, they present what many analysts describe as a compounding risk.

Higher fertiliser costs can reduce agricultural output, while prolonged drought places additional pressure on already stretched food systems. Add ongoing geopolitical instability and constrained global shipping routes, and the result is a supply chain that becomes increasingly vulnerable to disruption.

The implications extend well beyond agriculture.

Food security is now being viewed as an increasingly important element of national resilience, with governments recognising that sustained shortages or sharp increases in food prices can contribute to economic instability, humanitarian crises and geopolitical tension. A recent survey by the Center for Climate and Security identified food insecurity as the leading national security concern arising from the combination of climate change, conflict and a potential super El Niño.

For Australia, the discussion is less about whether supermarket shelves will suddenly become empty and more about resilience.

The country's food system is deeply connected to international markets through imports of agricultural inputs, global shipping networks and export trade. Disruption in one part of the system can quickly create ripple effects across production, logistics and pricing.

The warning from former security leaders is a reminder that today's security landscape is increasingly interconnected.

Climate, geopolitics, supply chains and critical infrastructure are no longer separate policy conversations. They are becoming part of the same national resilience challenge.

As Australia continues to strengthen its approach to security, protecting the systems that keep food moving may become just as important as protecting the systems that keep data flowing.

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